Hostile
takeovers and sabre-rattling - Argentina’s aggressive nationalism
takes the fight to Europe.
Radio
Nacional, Spain’s main public radio station, is rarely a platform
of anger or controversy. Like a political version of Gardener's
Question Time, newsreaders deliver the headlines with subdued
obedience and guests use
political correctness as the first rule of thumb. But on the morning
slot of 16th April, just as Spain was waking up to its cereal and
cafe con leche, the situation was a little different.
|
Trouble along the road for Repsol |
Antonio
Brufau, CEO of Spain’s main oil company Repsol, was in the studio
after his company suffered a major shock from Argentina. The Buenos
Aires government had seized control of Argentina’s largest
oil company
YPF back from Repsol, taking the lion’s share of Repsol’s 57% stake
in YPF. Brufau’s tone as he catalogued Argentina's “unjustifiable illegal
act” belied a distilled rage towards Argentina’s government,
particularly its president Cristina Fernandez de Kirschner. It
was a welcome break from the monotony of Spanish morning
radio, but epitomised the shock waves felt in Madrid after the news.
Repsol
acquired YPF in 1999 and for the next 12 years poured money into the
Argentinian operation, increasing its investment year-on-year. From
its original 1999 investment of $1bn by 2011 this had almost tripled
to $2.99bn (inflation-adjusted still well over a two-fold increase),
with $3.5bn promised in 2012. In addition, the number of YPF
employees almost doubled under Repsol's tenure.
For
twelve years, the partnership seemed rosy enough, with Brufau and
Argentinian minister in charge of energy policy Julio de Vido keeping
strong relations. According to Spanish newspaper ElPais: “The
Repsol president got on well with everyone he needed to: the
businessmen, the influential journalists, the governers of the
petrol-producing provinces”.
But
suddenly, in December 2011, this all changed.
De Vido changed his
tone, demanding that Brufau's company invest more in exploring and
producing petrol, despite YPF finding shale oil deposits worth around
$25bn in Argentina's Neuquén province last year. 2011 marked the
first time in history that Argentina had to import energy from
abroad, and the first port of call for criticism was Repsol, despite
the company accounting for only 33% of Argentina's energy production.
Brufau countered, citing that the existing oil deposits were nearing
exhaustion and that it was impossible to install the infrastructure
required for extracting the new finds so soon after their discovery.
But
his responses fell on deaf ears. From the placid relations of a few
months previous, the Argentinian government turned into Repsol-YPF's
main antagonist, criticising the company wherever possible, before
finally announcing the expropriation on April 16th.
The
sudden sea-change in relations, backed up by what Brufau termed
Argentina's “campaign of harrassment, coercion and leaking of
information”, pointed to a premeditated strike at Repsol's core.
Argentina was doing everything in its power to devalue YPF's shares,
allowing it to take control through expropriation when the share
prices were at rock-bottom.
Between
January and early April it fell by over 40% on the NYSE, from $42 to
$25.
Suddenly,
as de Kirschner announced the takeover, Repsol's representatives were
given minutes to pack their bags and clear their Buenos Aires
offices. Thirty years after the Falklands invasion, Argentina was
perpetrating another act of defiance against a former colonialist
power.
Naturally it was unrepentant. De Kirschner spoke of “taking
back what is ours” and justifying the act as for the good of
Argentina.
Legally,
the grounds for expropriation are shaky at best. International law
would only authorise the expropriation if it were in the public
interest and if the shareholders (Repsol) received fair compensation.
Neither of these seem likely at this stage. Even with control of YPF
it is still unlikely whether Argentina can once more become energy
self-reliant and eliminate the need for foreign energy imports.
After all, Repsol-YPF only accounted for a third of its energy
production and the infrastructure for new shale oil energy deposits
is still years away from being installed.
More
worryingly for Repsol is the problem of “fair” compensation.
Argentina has sent mixed messages, saying that remuneration of the
$9bn debt would be discussed in a government tribunal. But then de
Kirchner deployed her populist tone declaring that her government
would pay Repsol “zero pesos”. Spain and the EU responded,
imposing sanctions on Argenina, boycotts and trade blocs,
but It seems Argentina is determined to defy Europe once again.
|
YPF: part of Argentina's national conscience |
Kirchner's
motives are not hard to fathom. YPF is a company engrained in
Argentina's national psyche. When it was formed in 1922 it was the
world's first state-run oil company. Its original logo – in the
blue and white of the national flag – is testament to the patriotic
pride it represents. Putting it back into the hands of the taxpayer –
symbolically defying Repsol's supposed neo-colonialism – would
always be hugely popular.
So
it proved. Cheers of support in Argentina's national congress.
Demonstrations on the streets of Buenos Aires. The wave of public
approval recalled the celebrations after the 1982 Falklands invasion,
albeit on a smaller scale. Defying former colonial powers –
enflaming the residual bitterness towards them – is clearly a
popular move amongst ordinary Argentinians, and one which Kirchner is
apt to exploit.
The
Falklands question is even more emotionally-charged and again
Kirchner's jingoism has generated massive popular support. To mark
the thirtieth anniversary of the conflict the Argentine government
was once again in provocative mood, with Kirchner attacking Britain's
“absurd” stance towards the islands and unveiling a statue of the
islands with the Argentinian flag emblazoned across them.
|
De Kirchner in verbal combat |
The latest
furore came from an advert filmed secretly in Port Stanley, which
showed an Argentinian athlete training for London 2012, accompanied
by the tagline “to compete on English soil, we train on Argentinian
soil”.
But
Argentina's spurious sense of entitlement over the Falklands is just
one of many flashpoints. This and the YPF affair tie in with a
muscular anti-european sentiment appearing throughout Latin America.
In Bolivia, Evo Morales seized control of the country's main power
supplier, Transportadora de Electricidad, from Spanish company Red
Electrica, even ordering his military to seize the local assets of
the Spanish company. Brazil, the world's fifth-largest economy,
refused to allow British warship HMS Clyde to dock in Rio de Janeiro,
forcing it to divert to Chile.
Undoubtedly
there is a sense of pride when the former colony – the traditional
underdog – takes the fight back to its former oppressors.
But the
South American Viceroyalties splintered into independent nations
almost two hundred years ago. Like the rest of the world, Argentina
and Latin America must move on from their obsession with the remnants
of colonialism.
Clearly, the issue is still a source of emotionally-charged popular discord. For Latin American
leaders, exploiting it is a way to score cheap political points. But even
if this attitude stymies trade with European partners, its political
gains mean it is unlikely to disappear overnight.